October has been a quieter stretch for the Tampa Bay housing market, but there is some welcome news heading into the holiday season. Mortgage rates have been ticking down for about the last 10 days and are now around 7.2% (Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed 7.24% as of October 29). That kind of move is always helpful for both sides of a deal—buyers who have been waiting for a bit more breathing room on the monthly payment, and sellers who want more showings and stronger offers.
We have already seen a little more activity over the past couple of days, which suggests the lower rates may be starting to work their way through the market. November also tends to bring a push from people trying to close before year-end. Looking at Redfin data for 2021–2025, November home sales in the Tampa area have typically run about 10–11% below October. That seasonal dip is normal; what matters is whether the recent rate relief helps keep momentum going through the next few weeks.
Luxury sales stand out
Here is a fun fact worth a closer look: 10% of single-family home sales in Hillsborough and Pinellas this year were over $1 million. When you break sales out by price band, every category was down versus last year—except homes over $1 million. According to Greater Tampa Realtors (GTAR) data, those $1M+ single-family sales were up 27.2% year to date.
In other words, while much of the market has cooled, the upper end has held up. That can be a signal that some buyers see today’s conditions—more inventory in places, slightly lower rates, and a quieter fall calendar—as a window to act on the right property.
Halloween weekend around Tampa
If you are staying local this weekend, there is plenty going on. 13 Ugly Men – The Halloween Party 2026 and the Tampa Craft Festival on Water Street are both on the calendar this weekend.
A Harbour Island deal worth a look
We also put together a short video on an awesome deal in downtown Tampa—on Harbour Island. The full three-minute walkthrough is on YouTube: Watch the Harbour Island video. If waterfront-adjacent living and a strong value play are on your list, it is worth a few minutes.
We hope everyone has a scary (but safe) Halloween. If you have questions about the Tampa Bay market, a specific neighborhood, or a listing you have been watching, we are always happy to dig into the numbers with you.
— Matt Marsden
The Marsden Group | Agile Group Realty
Tampa, Florida